Teams with the best chance of landing Anthony Davis

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(Someone must have told him the Bobcats have the worst record.)

With the college basketball season over, and the NBA regular season nearing its end, it’s time to take a look at the teams with the best chance of winning the Anthony Davis Sweepstakes.

If the balls were dropped today [insert joke here] here are the teams that would have the best chance of winning the lottery.

1. Charlotte Bobcats 25.0%

2. Washington Wizards 19.9%

3. New Orleans Hornets 15.6%

4. Sacramento Kings 11.9%

5. Cleveland Cavaliers 8.8%

6. Portland Trail Blazers 5.4%

7. Toronto Raptors 5.3%

8. Utah Jazz 2.8%

9. Detroit Pistons 1.7%

10. New Orleans Hornets 1.1%

11. Portland Trail Blazers 0.8%

12. Milwaukee Bucks 0.7%

13. Phoenix Suns 0.6%

14. Houston Rockets 0.5%

The largest upset in the history of the NBA lottery occured in 1993 when the Orlando Magic got as lucky as this guy, and won the top pick with just a 1.3% chance to win, which turned out to be Shaquille O’Neal. The latest significant upset occured back in 2008 when the Chicago Bulls won the right to draft John Calipari protege Derrick Rose with just a 1.7% chance of winning.

Per Wikipedia,

“Here are the odds for each seed to get specific picks if there were no ties (rounded to 3 decimal places):”

Seed Chances 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
1 250 .250 .215 .178 .357                    
2 199 .199 .188 .171 .319 .123                  
3 156 .156 .157 .156 .226 .265 .040                
4 119 .119 .126 .133 .099 .351 .160 .012              
5 88 .088 .097 .107   .261 .360 .084 .004            
6 63 .063 .071 .081     .439 .305 .040 .001          
7 43 .043 .049 .058       .599 .232 .018 .000        
8 28 .028 .033 .039         .724 .168 .008 .000      
9 17 .017 .020 .024           .813 .122 .004 .000    
10 11 .011 .013 .016             .870 .089 .002 .000  
11 8 .008 .009 .012               .907 .063 .001 .000
12 7 .007 .008 .010                 .935 .039 .000
13 6 .006 .007 .009                   .960 .018
14 5 .005 .006 .007                     .982

If that chart didn’t make any sense to you either, you can go read their detailed explanation here on how they came up with those numbers. I’ve read it, and I’m still confused.

I’ve got one more stat for you, which I promise will be easy to understand (and congratulations to those who figured out the chart, I’m impressed). Since 1990, when the weighted lottery system was first introduced, only three teams with the worst record have gone on to win the NBA lottery, and only four teams with the second-worst record have gone on to win.

Hopefully come May 30th, that stat will have changed to 5 teams with the second-worst record have won the lottery, because there is nothing I would love more than to watch John Wall crossover DeWayne Wade and throw an alley-oop to Anthony Davis for the ridiculous dunk in Lebron James face. Keep losing Wizards, it will all be worth it in the end.

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